I heard on a radio show yesterday that a youngster in Chicago correctly picked the winners of last weekend's 48 first- and second-round NCAA Tournament games. I'm not calling the kid a liar, but I believe that as much as I believe Elin didn't whoop Tiger's butt.

If the kid pick all those winners: congrats!!! But I'm not buying it. Just like I'm not buying one ESPN analysts' assessment (Jay Bilas, my favorite) that Cornell's run will continue by beating Kentucky.

Here's how I rank the remaining 16 teams in the field and their chances of winning it all (from worst to first).

16. Northern Iowa - I think NIU is a solid team and a good story. I just want them to lose by 40 tomorrow night...for obvious reasons. But if you call me a homer, I'll punch you in the face.
15. Cornell - Easily the best 3-point shooting team in the field and one of the top three in the country. They have to have an off night at some point, right?
14. Washington - Awesome guards, and the team is on a hot streak in the tourney, but the Huskies may be a little too guard heavy.
13. Butler - The last two times the Bulldogs have been in the Sweet Sixteen, they've lost - Florida in '07 and Tennessee last year.
12. Xavier - The Musketeers have a guy in sophomore Jordan Crawford who could carry them to the Final Four, but he has to get help at some point and I don't know where it'll come from.
11. Tennessee - A deep team that employs a fastbreak offense and likes to press, the Vols can cause problems all over the floor. They can also play games like no one on the roster cares if they win or not.
10. St. Mary's - Dominant big man Omar Samhan, 31.5 points in two tourney games, could put the Gaels on his back and lead them to a couple more wins this season. But later in the tournament, talent begins to take over, which means trouble for St. Mary's.
9. Kansas State - The Wildcats don't get this far in the tournament very often, as this is their first Sweet Sixteen appearance since 1988. KSU has a great backcourt, but inexperience on the big stage may fail the Wildcats.
8. Michigan State - Of course I wish I could place them higher, but I can't. Losing your floor leader this late in the game is tough. Toughness has also been a calling card of the program since Tom Izzo took over the reins in 1995. That tenacity, and Izzo, could carry the Spartans a long way, but with all the injuries the team is facing, I just don't see it happening.
7. Purdue - The Boilermakers play excellent defense, feature a versatile big man and have more than enough ballhandlers. That can lead a team far. But Purdue will have to find ways to score, as it has averaged 67.5 points in two tournament games and notched only 63 in an overtime win over Texas A & M Sunday.
6. West Virginia - A very athletic team with versatile players in Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones, but the loss of point guard Truck Bryant will take its toll on a team that doesn't feature a true point man already.
5. Baylor - This season marks just the Bears sixth tournament appearance in the school's 103 years of fielding a hoops team, but it's a good one. Baylor has scorers on the wing (LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter) and in the post (Michigan Tranfer Ekpe Udoh). Udoh also gives the Bears an awesome defensive presence, shown in his nearly 4 blocks a game.
4. Duke - The Blue Devils, who I like as much as I like the KKK, feature three players (all on the wing) who average at least 17 points and 35 minutes a game. Duke can also rotate in a 6'8" guy, a 6'10" guy and a 7'1" guy. That's the recipe for a title. But if anyone they play in the next couple games realizes John Scheyer isn't really a point guard, that could keep Duke out of the Elite Eight for the sixth straight year.
3. Ohio State - The Buckeyes play a short rotation, but it's full of interchangeable parts. They play solid defense and also feature the best player in the country in Evan Turner, which is always a good bet. If some team is able to get the Buckeyes in foul trouble, that could spell the end of OSU's season and Turner's career in scarlet and gray.
2. Syracuse - The Orange, like OSU, employs a short rotation, which has been made even shorter with the loss of starting center Arinze Onuaku March 11 to a knee injury. Even with that loss, Syracuse, led by top-five NBA prospect Wesley Johnson, has looked like the second-best team in the field behind...
1. Kentucky - In picking the national champion, always go with the team that features the most pro prospects. Now watch the Wildcats go out and lose by 20 to Cornell tonight.