I had this thing in college with our athletic teams where before every big game, I would walk around telling everybody, "We're gonna lose. I have a bad feeling about this."

My friends caught on quickly, recognizing it was a form of reverse psychology or a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" approach.

That was easy with MSU's hoops team. The basketball team has been like Halle Berry: consistently good with a couple of hiccups (Catwoman/The 2006 season). The football squad on the other hand has been like Fergie. You think there's something there sometimes, but more often than not, you have a "meh" reaction.

Maybe that's the approach I was taking about a month ago when I predicted MSU to finish 7-5 and play in the Insight Bowl. Everyone and their mother had picked State to finish 9-3 or 10-2 and challenge for the Big Ten crown. I knew better.

I'll admit: I was wrong about the quarterback play. I thought Kirk Cousins OR Keith Nichol would struggle with being "The Man." Cousins (60.6 completion percentage, 7 TDs, 2 picks) has played well this season. Nichol has not. Nichol has 5 TD tosses and 2 interceptions. Two of those scores came in mop-up duty after last week's debacle in Wisconsin had already been decided.

I was right about the possibility of a lack of a running game. Through a quarter of the season, as a team, MSU is averaging 117.8 yards/game. That's good for 10th in the Big Ten. The team's longest run of the season, a whopping 25-yard scamper, belongs to Nichol. To top things off, we have three rushing touchdowns. That'd make sense if we were Texas Tech, but this is the Big Ten. You can't win if you can't run the ball.

I had no idea the defense would be this bad, though. Outside of Greg Jones (second in the FBS with 52 tackles, 4.5 TFL) no one on the defensive side of the ball has played well. Take away State's lone win vs. Montana State and the defense is giving up about 33 points/game. State's opponents are 12-12 in the Red Zone and converting nearly half their third-down plays. The team can't come up with a set 11, shuffling defensive backs and lineman in and out of the lineup.

That's what worries me most about the Michigan game. UM leads the Big Ten in scoring (37.5 ppg) and rush offense (240.3 yards/game, good for 8th in the country). Why does that scare me? State can't tackle. The guys on defense probably whiff on the dummies in practice. When a team has as many guys who are capable of making big plays with their feet as Michigan does, that doesn't bode well, especially if you CAN'T TACKLE.

Tomorrow's game is tailor-made for a UM blowout. The forecast is calling for 52 and rainy. Tate Forcier, AKA The Father, Son AND Holy Ghost, who's nursing an injured shoulder, may not have to make more than 10 throws for Michigan to win. Handing the ball off to Carlos Brown or Brandon Minor 35-40 times could do the trick. Remember that stat I threw out about MSU's long rush for the season? It wasn't even for a score. None of State's long rushes have been for scores. Michigan has three runs of more than 30 yards (31, 43 and 90 yards) that have directly resulted in six points.

State's strength is it's passing game (320.8 yards/game so far. UM's weakness has been its secondary (Michigan has given up 243.8 passing yards/game so far this season). Big plays through the air could help in canceling out UM's big plays on the ground. But it's a little tough to throw in a downpour (think State's 17-3 win over Florida Atlantic last season or The Game That Shall Not Be Named from 2006 where Jehuu Caulcrick had 111 yards on 7 carries partway through the third quarter and touched the pill once the rest of the way).

State should be fired up this week. Any chance of a special season has gone down the drain, but 2-3, 1-1 looks a lot better next to your name than 1-4, 0-2. But MSU should have been fired up last week after the way it let the Notre Dame game literally slip through its hands. Instead, the team came out flat and played Tila Tequila to Wisconsin's Shawne Merriman.

With all those variables in mind, I can't pick State to win tomorrow. I'll get up at 5:45 tomorrow morning, load up my car, and head up to East Lansing to have fun with friends. But I'll probably sit on my hands and keep my mouth shut during the game. If MSU comes out thinking its season is on the line - it is - then the team should go hard for 60 minutes and come up with a win.

I just don't see it happening, though.

UM-34
MSU-20

I will now pour hot wax into my eye sockets.