My boys and I every summer have a night where we decide to set the win totals of our favorite teams.

The best part about the whole process is it usually takes place about the time a White Castle tastes like a filet, which makes for some interesting predictions and discussion.

Last year, everybody was saying Michigan State, our alma mater, would win nine or 10 games. Everybody called me crazy for saying we'd top out at seven wins. State finished 6-7.

This year, I've hopped over to the other side of the fence. And this year, people are saying I'm as crazy as Kourtney Kardashian's baby daddy.

That's because I think MSU is going to be playing in Pasadena on New Year's Day 2011. Yes, I have my reasons. and, no, I haven't been hanging out with Paris Hilton.

Please, if you're gonna laugh, wait until the end.

Schedule plays into MSU’s hands
As a Spartan alum, I know MSU football handles prosperity as well as Lindsay Lohan, but the Spartans would have to quit at various points in the season to not win at least nine games. That or run awry of some frat boys.

Of the 12 games on MSU’s slate, seven are at Spartan Stadium against perennial powers such as Western Michigan (Sept. 4), Northern Colorado (Sept. 25) and Minnesota — a team many have picked to finish dead last in the Big Ten this season (Nov. 6).

The rest of the “home” slate includes Florida Atlantic Sept. 11 (I don’t care if the game is at Ford Field and is supposed to be a home game for FAU. It’s a home game for MSU, even if the Owls will recoup the gate), Notre Dame (Sept. 19), Wisconsin (Oct. 2), Illinois for Homecoming (Oct. 16), and Purdue (Nov. 20).

The only real toughie in the Spartans first eight games should come when the Badgers, ranked No. 12 in both the Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today coaches polls, travel to East Lansing. It’ll be Wisconsin’s first test after games at UNLV, and home against San Jose State, Arizona State and Austin Peay. Seriously. Who makes these non-conference schedules? Duncan Hines?

While the Badgers will be a top-20 team all season, the first game in a hostile environment could have Wisconsin rattled, enabling MSU to eek out a win.

On top of that, the Spartans don’t even leave the state of Michigan until Oct. 23 when they travel to Northwestern, where MSU has won two straight and lead the all-time series, 34-16.

The remainder of the Spartans’ road slate consists of on Oct. 9 going to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that may have quit on John L. Rodriguez by then, No. 9/10 Iowa on Devil’s Night and at a play MSU never wins — Nov. 27 in Happy Valley against No. 19/14 Penn State.

Rivalry games against Notre Dame and at The Out House will naturally provide tests for the Spartans, but Notre Dame implementing a new scheme that includes a no-huddle offense and the loss of several players slated to make an impact this season for Michigan in its secondary should prove too much for those squads to overcome. Both games will be shootouts, but I think the overall experience of MSU’s personnel will be the difference.

With a schedule as strong as Michelle Pfeiffer’s eggs in “Scarface,” MSU has a realistic shot at starting 8-0 going into November. Cold-weather home wins against the Gophers and Boilermakers should be a given at that point in the season — if the Spartans are for real. So going 1-2 against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions would put MSU at 10-2, 6-2 in the Big Ten. It's not out of the realm of possibility that MSU could win two of those three games, since Wisconsin is at home and I don't think Penn State will be any good this season. And I say that knowing we win in Happy Valley as often as Charles Barkley refuses a second Krispy Kreme.

That 10-2 finish would give the Spartans their best record since they finished 10-2 following the 1999 season. It could also likely put them in some sort of tie with Iowa and/or Wisconsin for second place in the conference.

Winning that tiebreaker would be crucial for any of those three teams because that second-place finish would send them to Pasadena and the 2011 Rose Bowl (I’ll get to who’ll win the Big Ten later).

I think MSU has the best shot to win that tiebreaker for one huge reason other than its creampuff schedule.

Part II coming tomorrow

For the first time in team history, the University Michigan will host a night football game at Michigan Stadium when the Wolverines welcome hated rival Notre Dame on Sept. 10, 2011.

New Michigan athletics director David Brandon made the historic scheduling announcement Thursday afternoon in Ann Arbor, according to the Associated Press.

The 2011 game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET and be televised by ESPN or ESPN2.

That looks like a good idea, as I've wondered why UM didn't host night games in the past. I don't know how well attended the game will be, though. Most Michigan football fans are in bed by 6:30 every night. I'm not sure all those old folks will make it through a game that might go until 11:30 at night. It should be fun, either way.

Sports have always served as a distraction for fans.

Watching a football game can, for a little while, make people forget what ails them.

Not around here. Not this fall.

The last couple months have been awful for fans of local teams. I've gotten to the point that I'd rather watch a Maury Povich marathon than watch a football game featuring one of our teams.

The University of Michigan has pulled an MSU: start fast and fade.

The Spartans have performed well below expectations (not mine, though) and will be lucky to play in a bowl game.

And the Lions have been, well, the Lions.

Fast forward to hockey and basketball season, and the Pistons, while they'll be entertaining, likely won't make the playoffs. And the area's one consistently really good franchise, the Red Wings, stumbled out of the gate (tied for second in the Central Division with Chicago, one point behind Columbus) and will be in a fight all year to make hockey's second season.

I know it's extremely early in the game, but if the playoffs started this weekend, fans of the two Detroit teams that have seen the most success in recent years would have to find a second squad to root for because their hometown team would be watching postseason action at Bdubs with the rest of us.

Things could get much better, though, come winter.

The Spartan men's hoops team is ranked second in the nation (behind Kansas, a team MSU beat twice last season) in both the Associated Press and Coaches polls. Michigan's hoop squad is ranked 15th in both polls, as the Wolverines will look to build on last season's trip to the Big Dance - their first since 1998.

So there may be some light at the end of this long tunnel, but right now, being a Detroit sports fan is about as fun as watching DVR'd episodes of NOVA on a Saturday night.

I'm friends with a lot of Michigan fans.

Most of the time, they're not that bad (I'm being nice), but some of them have been unbearable the last couple days.

They talk about how State fans are hanging their hats on beating Michigan in OT last weekend and how that win "makes State's season."

Although I know they're just responding in the way a jilted lover would, that statement isn't entirely false.

We needed that win Saturday. Starting 1-4, 0-2 in the Big Ten, would have been catastrophic. An already reeling fan base would have jumped off the ledge. But that win could have come against anyone and it still would have been a big deal.

I don't care if it had come against the Monroe School for Paraplegics, State (2-3, 1-1) had to have that win. Sure, in the process we beat Michigan in back-to-back years for the first time since before "Good Times" was on the air, but that was minor - to me, at least. Hopefully it breathed some life back into the roster. And with the way the schedule's set up, MSU should be able to build on the win.

State travels to Champagne to take on Illinois this weekend. The Illini is 1-3, 0-2 in conference, and coming off two demoralizing losses to the class of the Big Ten (Ohio State and Penn State, respectively). It's gotten so bad that Illinois coach Ron Zook Monday announced he's benching senior quarterback Juice Williams (1 TD, 4 picks this season) in favor of junior Eddie McGee, who started in the team's lone win this season over Illinois State Sept. 12. If that doesn't scream PANIC, I don't know what does. In the team's three losses, Illinois has been outscored 102-26. State should win this game. Now watch McGee come out and go 26/34 for 417 yards and 4 TDs.

MSU welcomes Northwestern to East Lansing Oct. 17. Neither MSU or NW has done anything impressive this season,but I'll take MSU's one semi-big win over Michigan over all of the Wildcats' victories (vs. Towson and Eastern Michigan and at Purdue). MSU was able to go to Evanston last year, when Northwestern had a much better team, and beat the Wilcats, 37-20, despite being dominated statistically. Northwestern lost it's top three receivers from a year ago, its top running back and starting quarterback all to graduation.

State SHOULD in theory be able to come out on top here, as well, bringing MSU's mark on the season to 4-3, 3-1 in the Big Ten before undefeated Iowa (vs. Michigan Oct. 10, at Wisconsin Oct. 17) comes calling Oct. 24 for a night game. However, the last two times the Wildcats have come to East Lansing, Northwestern is 2-0 and has scored 97 points to MSU's 55. That includes a 49-14, Joe Jackson-esque whooping at Homecoming in 2005. The only reason fans even stayed at that game past halftime was to see if they won the 50/50.

So, yea, winning the UM game might have made MSU's season. We won't know that for a couple months, though.

I had this thing in college with our athletic teams where before every big game, I would walk around telling everybody, "We're gonna lose. I have a bad feeling about this."

My friends caught on quickly, recognizing it was a form of reverse psychology or a "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" approach.

That was easy with MSU's hoops team. The basketball team has been like Halle Berry: consistently good with a couple of hiccups (Catwoman/The 2006 season). The football squad on the other hand has been like Fergie. You think there's something there sometimes, but more often than not, you have a "meh" reaction.

Maybe that's the approach I was taking about a month ago when I predicted MSU to finish 7-5 and play in the Insight Bowl. Everyone and their mother had picked State to finish 9-3 or 10-2 and challenge for the Big Ten crown. I knew better.

I'll admit: I was wrong about the quarterback play. I thought Kirk Cousins OR Keith Nichol would struggle with being "The Man." Cousins (60.6 completion percentage, 7 TDs, 2 picks) has played well this season. Nichol has not. Nichol has 5 TD tosses and 2 interceptions. Two of those scores came in mop-up duty after last week's debacle in Wisconsin had already been decided.

I was right about the possibility of a lack of a running game. Through a quarter of the season, as a team, MSU is averaging 117.8 yards/game. That's good for 10th in the Big Ten. The team's longest run of the season, a whopping 25-yard scamper, belongs to Nichol. To top things off, we have three rushing touchdowns. That'd make sense if we were Texas Tech, but this is the Big Ten. You can't win if you can't run the ball.

I had no idea the defense would be this bad, though. Outside of Greg Jones (second in the FBS with 52 tackles, 4.5 TFL) no one on the defensive side of the ball has played well. Take away State's lone win vs. Montana State and the defense is giving up about 33 points/game. State's opponents are 12-12 in the Red Zone and converting nearly half their third-down plays. The team can't come up with a set 11, shuffling defensive backs and lineman in and out of the lineup.

That's what worries me most about the Michigan game. UM leads the Big Ten in scoring (37.5 ppg) and rush offense (240.3 yards/game, good for 8th in the country). Why does that scare me? State can't tackle. The guys on defense probably whiff on the dummies in practice. When a team has as many guys who are capable of making big plays with their feet as Michigan does, that doesn't bode well, especially if you CAN'T TACKLE.

Tomorrow's game is tailor-made for a UM blowout. The forecast is calling for 52 and rainy. Tate Forcier, AKA The Father, Son AND Holy Ghost, who's nursing an injured shoulder, may not have to make more than 10 throws for Michigan to win. Handing the ball off to Carlos Brown or Brandon Minor 35-40 times could do the trick. Remember that stat I threw out about MSU's long rush for the season? It wasn't even for a score. None of State's long rushes have been for scores. Michigan has three runs of more than 30 yards (31, 43 and 90 yards) that have directly resulted in six points.

State's strength is it's passing game (320.8 yards/game so far. UM's weakness has been its secondary (Michigan has given up 243.8 passing yards/game so far this season). Big plays through the air could help in canceling out UM's big plays on the ground. But it's a little tough to throw in a downpour (think State's 17-3 win over Florida Atlantic last season or The Game That Shall Not Be Named from 2006 where Jehuu Caulcrick had 111 yards on 7 carries partway through the third quarter and touched the pill once the rest of the way).

State should be fired up this week. Any chance of a special season has gone down the drain, but 2-3, 1-1 looks a lot better next to your name than 1-4, 0-2. But MSU should have been fired up last week after the way it let the Notre Dame game literally slip through its hands. Instead, the team came out flat and played Tila Tequila to Wisconsin's Shawne Merriman.

With all those variables in mind, I can't pick State to win tomorrow. I'll get up at 5:45 tomorrow morning, load up my car, and head up to East Lansing to have fun with friends. But I'll probably sit on my hands and keep my mouth shut during the game. If MSU comes out thinking its season is on the line - it is - then the team should go hard for 60 minutes and come up with a win.

I just don't see it happening, though.

UM-34
MSU-20

I will now pour hot wax into my eye sockets.

I picked the Spartan football team to go 7-5 at the start of the season.

That was based on research and analysis. In my heart, I always want them to go 10-2 or 11-1 and end up in the Rose Bowl.

Even though I thought State would be a middle of the pack Big Ten team, it still hurts when my team loses in the fashion they have the last couple weeks. The Notre Dame loss was the worst. I didn't think State would win, but when the team fought like it did, I thought they could pull it out.

I won't rehash what happened, but that loss hurt almost as much as hearing your girlfriend say she doesn't wanna be with you anymore. The ND loss hurt so much that I made a (friendly) bet with a friend for the Michigan/MSU game. Seems innocent enough, right? I took Michigan at -6.5. Granted, it was later in the day, after I had drowned my sorrows and had the close of the game run through my head 1,657,789 times, but that showed me how much Green and White blood runs through my veins. I felt so down about a loss that I went with the enemy.

I have since gotten out of that bet. MSU needs to get out of the dumps. A win at Wisconsin tomorrow, and State could be on their way to a shot at the Big Ten title. That shows you how much I think of this Big Ten.

State can get on a roll. That has to start in Madison. Camp Randall is a very tough place to play and an even tougher place to win, but I don't think "No way State wins this game" when I see the Badgers on MSU's schedule. And Wisconsin playing Northern Illinois, Fresno State and Wofford to this point in the season (Bret Bielema apparently graduated from the Bill Snyder/Any SEC Coach School of Scheduling) doesn't have me at all rattled.

So get it done, fellas. You can build on a 2-2 start. A 1-3 start with Michigan coming up, presumably undefeated after they roll over Indiana, could cause panic in the locker room and the stands. And I don't know if I can take many more Saturdays like last week.

And I don't know if I'll get through next week if we lose tomorrow. I know waaaaaaaaay too many UM fans.

When Matt Millen served as president and general manager of the Detroit Lions, he was as good at that job as Joe Jackson would be at raising Michael's kids.

Lions' fans wanted him out. And after eight long, excruciatingly painful years, he was gone - three games into what would turn out to be the worst season turned in by anyone since the people who wrote the last season of "Martin."

Millen went back to what he was actually good at: analyzing the game of football. ESPN hired him, and Millen, starting this season, will provide color commentary for a number of college football games...including tomorrow's huge showdown between Michigan and Notre Dame in Ann Arbor at the Out Hou...I mean, Big House.

The announcement that Millen would be a part of the broadcast team for that game was made months ago and since then, I've heard several people bellow, "how could ESPN let that (expletive) back in this state?"

I don't see what the big deal is.

If you suck at one job, does that mean you shouldn't be able to find a position you could thrive in?

I have no problem with the guy being game fully employed. If you recall, Millen was pretty decent when it came to analyzing plays for FOX prior to taking the GM job with the Lions and stealing money for 5 years (I won't say he stole for the entire 8 years because somebody had to hire him). As long as he doesn't say anything about the pro prospects of Tate Forcier or Golden Tate, viewers should be OK.

Plus, it's not the color guy who makes the game-watching experience. It's the guy on play-by-play. I'm pretty sure not a lot of people remember Al Michaels' color guy during the "Miracle On Ice." And the only reason I remember Marv Albert's color guy (Mike Fratello) from the "Oh, a spectacular move....By Michael Jordan" call is because I'm a geek.

Millen should be an afterthought in these parts by now. He should also be an afterthought for UM fans halfway through the first quarter by tomorrow.