The last time MSU played Ohio State, then-true freshman Terrell Pryor looked like a combination of Randall Cunningham and Doug Williams, as the Buckeyes had their way with the Spartans on their way to a 42-7 smashing.

After several prayers, somehow, Ohio State came off MSU's schedule for two years. That will prove to be crucial this season and is one of four reasons I see the Spartans playing in the 2011 Rose Bowl.

No Ohio State on the schedule is good for MSU

The Spartans for the second straight year avoid the Big Ten’s Team of the Decade: the Ohio State Buckeyes.

How this happened, I don’t know. But I’m as thankful for it as washed-up stars are for reality show checks. Had OSU been on MSU’s schedule last season instead of, say, Purdue, the Spartans go 5-7 and don’t get those extra practices leading up to the Alamo Bowl.

Not playing the Bucks this season is a Godsend for an entirely different reason — its the difference between finishing 9-3 and having a good season and going 10-2 and possibly having a special season.

Make no mistake: Ohio State will win its record sixth straight Big Ten title this season. But the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes will be playing for a much bigger prize than the Rose Bowl trophy. I see Ohio State going undefeated and winning the BCS National Title — partly because I think they’re that good and partly because I don’t think they’ face off with an SEC team in the title game. The Bucks return all their playmakers on offense and feature one of the best, most experienced offensive lines in the country. Add that to a defense littered with NFL prospects and you have the recipe for a national title win.

OSU getting to the title game leaves the door open for the Rose Bowl to select a second Big Ten team, which I believe (Seriously, I do. Stop laughing!) will be the Spartans. That would send MSU to its first Rose Bowl game since 1988, where it beat USC, 20-17. How long ago was that? Michael Jackson bought the “Neverland” ranch that year; “Rain Man” was the top grossing film at the box office; Nintendo released “Super Mario Bros. 3,” which I still have yet to beat; and Milli Vanilli was formed.

One thing not in MSU’s, or any other Big Ten team’s favor, is a new BCS rule going into effect this season that states the Rose Bowl must take a non-BCS team this year (most likely, preseason No. 3 Boise State) if one is eligible and the Rose loses one of its conference anchors. For that to happen, one or both of the anchors (Pac-10/Big Ten) would have to play in the BCS championship game.

I don’t see that happening, though. I think Boise State will lose its marquee game Monday against Virginia Tech. That loss would likely knock the Broncos out of the top 10. With its schedule, it would be next to impossible for Boise to end up in the top two at the end of the season.

With that, I'm picking MSU and Oregon State to meet in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

It’s our turn. We're next in line.

Since State’s last Rose Bowl appearance, eight Big Ten teams have appeared in the “Granddaddy of them All” — Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin.

That says a lot more about how awful MSU has been over the last 20-plus seasons than it does about the depth of the Big Ten.

But it’s our time. It has to happen this year.

One of the reasons I’m so confident about this prediction is because of one of the most undervalued units in college football.

Part III coming tomorrow

My boys and I every summer have a night where we decide to set the win totals of our favorite teams.

The best part about the whole process is it usually takes place about the time a White Castle tastes like a filet, which makes for some interesting predictions and discussion.

Last year, everybody was saying Michigan State, our alma mater, would win nine or 10 games. Everybody called me crazy for saying we'd top out at seven wins. State finished 6-7.

This year, I've hopped over to the other side of the fence. And this year, people are saying I'm as crazy as Kourtney Kardashian's baby daddy.

That's because I think MSU is going to be playing in Pasadena on New Year's Day 2011. Yes, I have my reasons. and, no, I haven't been hanging out with Paris Hilton.

Please, if you're gonna laugh, wait until the end.

Schedule plays into MSU’s hands
As a Spartan alum, I know MSU football handles prosperity as well as Lindsay Lohan, but the Spartans would have to quit at various points in the season to not win at least nine games. That or run awry of some frat boys.

Of the 12 games on MSU’s slate, seven are at Spartan Stadium against perennial powers such as Western Michigan (Sept. 4), Northern Colorado (Sept. 25) and Minnesota — a team many have picked to finish dead last in the Big Ten this season (Nov. 6).

The rest of the “home” slate includes Florida Atlantic Sept. 11 (I don’t care if the game is at Ford Field and is supposed to be a home game for FAU. It’s a home game for MSU, even if the Owls will recoup the gate), Notre Dame (Sept. 19), Wisconsin (Oct. 2), Illinois for Homecoming (Oct. 16), and Purdue (Nov. 20).

The only real toughie in the Spartans first eight games should come when the Badgers, ranked No. 12 in both the Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today coaches polls, travel to East Lansing. It’ll be Wisconsin’s first test after games at UNLV, and home against San Jose State, Arizona State and Austin Peay. Seriously. Who makes these non-conference schedules? Duncan Hines?

While the Badgers will be a top-20 team all season, the first game in a hostile environment could have Wisconsin rattled, enabling MSU to eek out a win.

On top of that, the Spartans don’t even leave the state of Michigan until Oct. 23 when they travel to Northwestern, where MSU has won two straight and lead the all-time series, 34-16.

The remainder of the Spartans’ road slate consists of on Oct. 9 going to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that may have quit on John L. Rodriguez by then, No. 9/10 Iowa on Devil’s Night and at a play MSU never wins — Nov. 27 in Happy Valley against No. 19/14 Penn State.

Rivalry games against Notre Dame and at The Out House will naturally provide tests for the Spartans, but Notre Dame implementing a new scheme that includes a no-huddle offense and the loss of several players slated to make an impact this season for Michigan in its secondary should prove too much for those squads to overcome. Both games will be shootouts, but I think the overall experience of MSU’s personnel will be the difference.

With a schedule as strong as Michelle Pfeiffer’s eggs in “Scarface,” MSU has a realistic shot at starting 8-0 going into November. Cold-weather home wins against the Gophers and Boilermakers should be a given at that point in the season — if the Spartans are for real. So going 1-2 against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions would put MSU at 10-2, 6-2 in the Big Ten. It's not out of the realm of possibility that MSU could win two of those three games, since Wisconsin is at home and I don't think Penn State will be any good this season. And I say that knowing we win in Happy Valley as often as Charles Barkley refuses a second Krispy Kreme.

That 10-2 finish would give the Spartans their best record since they finished 10-2 following the 1999 season. It could also likely put them in some sort of tie with Iowa and/or Wisconsin for second place in the conference.

Winning that tiebreaker would be crucial for any of those three teams because that second-place finish would send them to Pasadena and the 2011 Rose Bowl (I’ll get to who’ll win the Big Ten later).

I think MSU has the best shot to win that tiebreaker for one huge reason other than its creampuff schedule.

Part II coming tomorrow

-6'8"

-230 pounds

-Four-year starter

-Averaged double-figure points and around 6 board a game his entire career, along with shooting about 51 percent from the field

-The ability to score on the wing, combined with the skills to get buckets in the paint

-Can guard multiple positions

That looks like the resume of an NBA Lottery pick, right?

What about when you add this in:

-Looks lost on the court at times

-Sulks when things don't go his way

-No-shows entire games at times

-A bit of a whiner

That looks like the attributes of an athlete with the mental acumen of Ron Artest.

But that's been, for better or worse, what MSU has gotten from Raymar Morgan the last four years. Morgan shows flashes of brilliance at times - like averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds over State's final three regular season games. Those were all wins MSU HAD to have, and Raymar was easily the best player on the floor in each contest.

Then there's the other side of it, like when Morgan had a five-game stretch of 0, 8, 8, 6 and 4 points when MSU lost three of five, and the lead in the Big Ten, early last month.

That's what kills me. I get more upset when Ray has a great game (WHY THE #%$* CAN'T YOU PLAY THIS WAY ALL THE TIME?!?) than I do when he goes out and gives a performance that rivals the acting in "Homeboys From Outer Space." How weird is that? There's so much potential there, but he hasn't fully harnessed it. He's faced injuries and illness during his time in East Lansing, but more often than not, Morgan has played like Rasheed Wallace: great skills and talent, but no real desire to be The Man.

Look at Texas' Damion James. I've been telling my boys all season that he and Raymar are the exact same player: same size, skill set, everything. But James doesn't take nights off (he's scored in double figures in 28 of Texas' 31 games and has 15 double-doubles this season) and is projected as a top-15 pick in this summer's NBA Draft. Morgan - because of his inconsistent play and demeanor at times, not is level of skill - will be lucky to latch on with a team overseas.

But Ray can redeem himself if he carries his good play from the end of the regular season into the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.

The most frustrating thing about that?

Nobody knows if he will.

Noon Sept. 5 vs. Montana St.
This is one of the few "gimmes" on MSU's schedule this season. All I wanna see in this game is if the team can keep the penalties down on both sides of the ball and if the offensive line can establish dominance early.
Win

Noon Sept. 12 vs. Central Michigan
This could be a trap game for the Spartans, as the team may be looking ahead to the next week's game: at No. 23 Notre Dame. If State isn't careful, darkhorse Heisman candidate, CMU QB Dan LeFevour, and an underrated group of receivers could carve the MSU defense up. Look for this one to be a shootout in the first half, with MSU taking over late in the 3rd and pulling out the win.
Win

3:30 p.m. Sept. 19 at (23) Notre Dame
Look for State to win, 63-10, with Charlie Weis being canned after the game and sent back to Tatooine. Well, that's what I want to happen, anyway. This one is tough, especially since MSU hasn't lost in South Bend since No Limit Records was hot. But I can't see that losing streak lasting too much longer for ND. Look for Irish QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate to hook up for a couple scores, as ND eeks out a close one.
Loss

TBA Sept. 26 at Wisconsin
You know the face you make when you get your first whif of someone letting loose? That's the face people make at me when I tell them State's losing this game. I guess some people don't remember the Badgers had State dead to rights last fall, only to lose the game on a last-second field goal. Also, that game was in November AT MSU. This game is in early fall in Madison. Wiconsin running back John Clay will be the star of this game.
Loss

TBA Oct. 3 vs. Michigan
MSU hasn't won back-to-back games against its arch rival since the Kennedy administration. That stat will change come October. I'm hoping UM comes into this one undefeated (they're first four games are against Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan and Indiana), so it looks better when State routs them.
Win

Noon Oct. 10 at Illinois
If this game was in East Lansing, I'd be more confident. But Illinois could have one of the 15 best offenses in the country this season. At this point in the season, I don't think State could keep up with Illinois in a shootout.
Loss

Noon Oct. 17 vs. Northwestern
MSU handled Northwestern in Evanston last fall. That was a team that won 9 games. This Northwestern team won't have its top three receivers from a year ago, or its top running back.
Win

7 p.m. Oct. 24 vs. (22) Iowa
How State lucked into getting Iowa two years in a row at home, I don't know. But I'll take it. Last season, the defense made big plays late to seal the win for MSU, and that could be the case this year, as well.
Win

8 p.m. Oct. 31 at Minnesota
Night game. New stadium. Juiced up crowd. Best wide receiver in the conference in Eric Decker.
Loss

TBA Nov. 7 vs. Western Michigan
Should be easy win for State. The weather should make it a little difficult for Western QB Tim Hiller to get going. Think last year's Florida Atlantic game.
Win

TBA Nov. 14 at Purdue
Purdue will be awful this season. That is all.
Win

TBA Nov. 21 vs. (9) Penn State
Everyone and their mother is predicting this game will be for the Big Ten championship. Maybe next year.
Loss

Final prediction: 7-5 (4-4 Big Ten), birth in Insight Bowl

I've been having heated debates with friends over the past month or so about the prospects for our alma mater, Michigan State, this football season.

Everyone seems to believe the team will be world beaters this season and finish with 9 or 10 wins (NOT including a bowl game). They have the right to believe the team will build off its success from last season, when it finished 9-3 and played in its first New Year's Day game since the 2000 then-Citrus Bowl.

They see the improved defense - led by preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Greg Jones - that features nine starters who are juniors or seniors.

They see our special teams, led by one of the best kickers in the nation, senior Brent Swenson.

They also see a schedule that, right now, features only three games against ranked opponents. All of which are about a month a part. And two of those (Oct. 24 vs. Iowa and Nov. 21 vs. Penn State) are home games. There are also games against teams (Wisconsin and Northwestern) that are set to take a step back from the success they had last season, and two games against in-state opponents that should be cakewalks.

I, however, sit on the other side of the fence.

I know I'm gonna get killed for this, but I think MSU this season will be a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team in 2009.

The offense lost 97 percent of its rushing yards when Javon Ringer left East Lansing last spring. What makes the loss even worse is that no other back on the roster showed anything that led coaches, or fans, to believe there was an heir to the starting halfback throne.

A look at the depth chart lists redshirt Freshman Caulton Ray as the starter and two true freshmen (highly-touted backs Edwin Baker and Larry Caper, respectively) as his back-ups. Now-senior A.J. Jimmerson and sophomore Andre Anderson were supposed to take the reins; but Jimmerson is listed only as a kick returner, while Anderson isn't even mentioned on the depth chart. Sure, the O-Line will open up some holes for the young guys, but how much of a groove can you get into as a back when you're in for three plays, then out for two or three series?

Although his numbers weren't spectacular, the loss of senior quarterback Brian Hoyer could be a big one, as well. I don't doubt the skill and talent of sophomore Kirk Cousins (listed as the starter on the depth chart) or transfer Keith Nichol. They'll have a packed house pulling for them in 7 of the team's 12 regular season contests, but what happens in a tight spot on the road? Will they fold under the pressure? The quarterback battle, according to coach Mark Dantonio, will continue throughout the season, as both signal-callers will get PT.

The QBs have several targets to hit; and, hopefully, the wideouts perform better than last year, when they recorded several drops in some key spots. I just don't see all that adding up to a huge year for MSU.

I think 2010 is the year MSU makes the jump and challenges for the Big Ten Title and what would be its first Rose Bowl berth in 23 years.

Yes, there will be more talent on the roster in 2009, but it's young talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

So 7-5 is the mark for MSU in 2009. But I wouldn't be upset if I end up being wrong.

Check back for game-by-game predictions for the Spartans.