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Jason Carmel Davis is a copy editor/page designer with the Oakland Press and Heritage Newspapers. Davis has also written a number of offbeat sports columns for other publications, as he has an unhealthy obsession with all things athletics. It's so unhealthy that he has planned the births of his (future) children around Bowl Season, the Super Bowl, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament and the NBA and NFL drafts.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Losses should keep piling up for Pistons

I was at the last game the Pistons won: a 104-95 victory over the equally hapless Golden State Warriors Dec. 12 at the Palace.

That W gave Detroit a 5-game win streak and put the Pistons at 11-12, good for seventh in the Eastern Conference at the time.

Since then, the team has lost 12 straight games by an average score of 100-87 to put the Pistons at 11-24. Detroit is now tied with Golden State for the fourth-worst record in the League and, if the NBA Draft were held today, the Pistons would most likely have a top-five pick in a fairly deep draft.

As bad as they've been, Detroit is only five games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East (currently held by the 15-18 Milwaukee Bucks. God, the East is awful). It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that the Pistons could make the playoffs and play sacrificial lamb to the Cleveland Cavaliers (again), but what would that accomplish?

A lot of people have talked about Detroit trading either Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince to get a big man. What (decent) big man would either of those guys, who make - combined - about $23 million, be able to get you? All of the solid big men have been locked up long term or will command big dollars on the free agent market, which would mean the possibility of the Pistons having to pay the luxury tax, which they've always been reluctant to do.

Others have suggested offering one or both Hamilton and Prince to a team with a big expiring deal as a way to free up cash this summer and go after a superstar, such as LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Who's the last "big name" free agent to come to Detroit?

Detroit has never been a place where free agents wanted to come. It is important to find a way to get one or both of those guys off the roster at some point this season, as Detroit already has about $51.4 million in salaries on the books for next season. With the cap set to drop to about $52 million, moves must be made if the Pistons are going to be a player in the free agent game this summer. I'm just not sure any team would want Hamilton or Prince.

Detroit should keep doing what it's doing: being a bad team.

In the NBA, it doesn't pay to be middle of the road. So you get to the playoffs and get bounced in the first round. You've got no shot at a lottery pick and the Draft is usually a crapshoot outside of the lottery. Lady Luck hasn't exactly been on team President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars' side when it comes to the Draft.

The Pistons are awful. I've heard of teams "tanking" the season, but it's not tanking when you already stink. I had Detroit pegged to finish 27-55 before the start of the season. I'm not sure they'll win that many games. Looking at their schedule, the Pistons have two games against Minnesota (8-30) and three against the Detroit Lions of the NBA: the New Jersey Nets (3-33), who would probably struggle with Hickory High at this point. Those are (probably) their only "gimmes" the rest of the way.

Detroit has to build through the Draft. When you're not a free agent destination, stockpiling young talent through the Draft is how you build a winner. At this point, it's safe to say the Pistons will have a top-five pick. And if the Lottery balls bounce their way, the Pistons could luck up and get Kentucky freshman point guard John Wall and pair him with Rodney Stuckey, allowing Stuckey to slide to his natural position: shooting guard.

A backcourt of Wall and Stuckey would be a nice start.

So while the losses keep adding up for Detroit (and they will), fans should think about the long-term effects.

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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

2009-10 NBA: Teams on the decline Part I

With teams looking to free up cap space to make a run at the prized players in the much-hyped 2010 NBA free agent class - LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson are just five names that come to mind - there will surely be some squads looking to dump what they deem "bad" contracts to give them the flexibility to make a hard sell to some of those free agents.

With the league salary cap most likely taking a steep drop next season (some think it may drop form the current $57.7 million to around $50 million), teams will make moves to avoid paying the league Luxury Tax, as well.

A few of those teams have been consistent playoff teams this decade. But do to roster changes, injuries and/or finances, these teams will see a drop in wins this season in a bid to rebuild or shed cap space.

Detroit Pistons
Shortly after the start of the 2008-09 season, Detroit re-signed two-guard Rip Hamilton to a 3-year, $34 million deal that could keep him with the club through 2013. I don't see that happening, especially after Detroit this summer inked Bulls super-sub Ben Gordon to a 5-year, $55 million deal. A number of people believe Detroit will run a three-guard offense with Hamilton and Gordon running alongside third-year guard Rodney Stuckey. There's not enough balls to go around for those three guys.

All three are scoring guards - even though Detroit is making an effort to turn Stuckey into a point. Hamilton can play off the ball. So can Gordon to a lesser extent, but Stuckey will dominate the ball this season as the team looks to make him That Guy. And you don't pay someone coming off the bench $55 million.

Both Hamilton and Gordon for their career average around 15 shots a game and don't provide much else. That, in my opinion, leaves Hamilton as the odd man out as Gordon is just 26, while Hamilton is on the wrong side of 30. Just like Chauncey Billups was last season before he was dealt in what amounted to a salary dump. I don't know what Pistons President and GM Joe Dumars could get for Hamilton, but getting that contract off the books is looking like a good move. It's not a bad contract, which works in the favor of Dumars in trying to move it and in favor of the team who signs Rip, as his deal isn't that cumbersome to take on.

Dealing Rip, as I expect Detroit to do, would leave the Pistons with a core of Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun Prince and Charlie Villanueva (who signed with Gordon this offseason for just under $38 million). That's not a very imposing roster. Detroit sports icon Ben Wallace returned this season, but is waaaaaay past his prime. Starting center Kwame Brown, who has played solid ball so far this preseason, can't catch a cold, let alone a post entry pass. And Dumars drafted three players who play the same position. They may be able to play multiple positions, none of which is center or point guard.

The Pistons will, at times, be very fun to watch. You just won't be watching them past mid-April this season. I didn't think Detroit was a playoff team with Hamilton. Unless the Pistons get someone who can give you 17 points and 10 boards a night, they're definitely not playing in the second season.

Did I mention Kwame Brown is Detroit's starting center?

Part II coming soon

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