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Jason Carmel Davis is a copy editor/page designer with the Oakland Press and Heritage Newspapers. Davis has also written a number of offbeat sports columns for other publications, as he has an unhealthy obsession with all things athletics. It's so unhealthy that he has planned the births of his (future) children around Bowl Season, the Super Bowl, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament and the NBA and NFL drafts.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Losses should keep piling up for Pistons

I was at the last game the Pistons won: a 104-95 victory over the equally hapless Golden State Warriors Dec. 12 at the Palace.

That W gave Detroit a 5-game win streak and put the Pistons at 11-12, good for seventh in the Eastern Conference at the time.

Since then, the team has lost 12 straight games by an average score of 100-87 to put the Pistons at 11-24. Detroit is now tied with Golden State for the fourth-worst record in the League and, if the NBA Draft were held today, the Pistons would most likely have a top-five pick in a fairly deep draft.

As bad as they've been, Detroit is only five games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East (currently held by the 15-18 Milwaukee Bucks. God, the East is awful). It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that the Pistons could make the playoffs and play sacrificial lamb to the Cleveland Cavaliers (again), but what would that accomplish?

A lot of people have talked about Detroit trading either Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince to get a big man. What (decent) big man would either of those guys, who make - combined - about $23 million, be able to get you? All of the solid big men have been locked up long term or will command big dollars on the free agent market, which would mean the possibility of the Pistons having to pay the luxury tax, which they've always been reluctant to do.

Others have suggested offering one or both Hamilton and Prince to a team with a big expiring deal as a way to free up cash this summer and go after a superstar, such as LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Who's the last "big name" free agent to come to Detroit?

Detroit has never been a place where free agents wanted to come. It is important to find a way to get one or both of those guys off the roster at some point this season, as Detroit already has about $51.4 million in salaries on the books for next season. With the cap set to drop to about $52 million, moves must be made if the Pistons are going to be a player in the free agent game this summer. I'm just not sure any team would want Hamilton or Prince.

Detroit should keep doing what it's doing: being a bad team.

In the NBA, it doesn't pay to be middle of the road. So you get to the playoffs and get bounced in the first round. You've got no shot at a lottery pick and the Draft is usually a crapshoot outside of the lottery. Lady Luck hasn't exactly been on team President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars' side when it comes to the Draft.

The Pistons are awful. I've heard of teams "tanking" the season, but it's not tanking when you already stink. I had Detroit pegged to finish 27-55 before the start of the season. I'm not sure they'll win that many games. Looking at their schedule, the Pistons have two games against Minnesota (8-30) and three against the Detroit Lions of the NBA: the New Jersey Nets (3-33), who would probably struggle with Hickory High at this point. Those are (probably) their only "gimmes" the rest of the way.

Detroit has to build through the Draft. When you're not a free agent destination, stockpiling young talent through the Draft is how you build a winner. At this point, it's safe to say the Pistons will have a top-five pick. And if the Lottery balls bounce their way, the Pistons could luck up and get Kentucky freshman point guard John Wall and pair him with Rodney Stuckey, allowing Stuckey to slide to his natural position: shooting guard.

A backcourt of Wall and Stuckey would be a nice start.

So while the losses keep adding up for Detroit (and they will), fans should think about the long-term effects.

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Darko done in the NBA/Re-hashing 03 Draft

The New York Post this week reported that former No. 2 overall pick Darko Milicic said he's going to return to Europe to play ball at the end of this season.

"Whatever happens, I'm going back next year," the 7-foot-1 Milicic told The Post. "It's 100-percent certain. I have to be real and not lie. I'm not going to get it done in the NBA. I'm not going to get another opportunity and there's nothing wrong with going back to Europe. I don't want to create a bad atmosphere here, but it's not working in the NBA."

It took him seven years in the League to figure out it wasn't working? How’d he come to that conclusion? Maybe it was playing behind 450-pound Eddy Curry. That or the constantly hearing, “YOU SUCK, DARKO” yelled at him in 658 languages by NYC cabbies. He couldn't get off the oak in Detroit. He couldn't get any burn in Memphis, which is the CW Network of NBA teams. Now he can't get on the court for a New York team (Milicic has played in just eight of the Knicks 24 games) that had been 3-14 until a recent four-game win streak.

Darko is making $7.54 million this year to play 8.9 minutes a night. That's about $7.56 million more than he SHOULD be making. For his seven-year career, Darko averages 5.4 points, 4 boards and about 17 minutes a night. Those are numbers you expect to see for Dwayne Schintzius, not the No. 2 overall pick.

From here on, this is a re-hash of a blog I published prior to the 2007 NBA Draft in June 2007.

Let's play a game of "what if." The '03 draft turned out to be one of the deepest in history, being mentioned in the same breath as the '84 draft (Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, John Stockton) and the '96 draft (Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Ray Allen, Stephon Marbury, Jermaine O'Neal).

Darko was the second pick on the '03 edition of the draft. The second pick in the other star-studded drafts hasn't panned out how GMs and owners hoped. Sam Bowie's 10-year career was injury filled and Marcus Camby (selected number two by the Toronto Raptors in 1996) has turned into a serviceable big man, but not what Isiah Thomas hoped when he drafted him.

Waiting a few years to re-do or grade a previous draft is always a good idea, in my opinion. Who would have thought Josh Howard and Leandro Barbosa would have turned into stars after their rookie campaigns?

Number one in 2003 was a no-brainer. Cleveland was set to take LeBron James with the first selection. It gets interesting past that point, though, so we'll start with the second pick. The draftees' original spot is in parentheses.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers-LeBron James (1), St. Vincent/St. Mary's High School. Original pick: James

2. Detroit Pistons-Chris Bosh (4), Georgia Tech. A number of people have said Detroit should have taken Carmelo Anthony here, but the Pistons already had a small forward in Prince. Dwyane Wade may have fit here, too, but his minutes may have been minimal behind Hamilton and Billups. Many people have said Milicic didn't display any passion or work ethic, which led to him not getting any burn. I think Bosh, Anthony and Wade would have earned some PT. Original pick: Darko Milicic

3. Denver Nuggets-Dwyane Wade (5), Marquette. We all know Denver took Anthony in the spot four years ago. The 2006 Finals MVP could have worked out for the Nuggets, though. With the 46th pick, Denver could have chosen the undrafted Udonis Haslem, Wade's teammate in Miami, or the undrafted Marquise Daniels. Haslem has stayed healthy throughout his career, which is more than I can say for Nene. Haslem may have not commanded a $60 million deal the way Hilario did, either. Original pick: Carmelo Anthony

4. Toronto Raptors-Carmelo Anthony (3), Syracuse. Could drafting Anthony have kept Vince Carter in Canada? We'll never know, but this pick could have given the Raptors a wing tandem for the ages. Haslem was also still on the board when Toronto picked again at 52, which would have filled the PF hole. Original pick: Bosh

5. Miami Heat-Josh Howard (29), Wake Forest. The best defensive player on the list takes a huge jump from his original position. I don't know if Howard would have led the Heat to the second round of the playoffs the way Wade did his rookie season, but Howard's all-around, unselfish game would have meshed well with Shaq, assuming O'Neal would have still signed with the Heat. Milwaukee point guard Mo Williams was available at 33, as well, and Williams could have played the two in Miami. Original pick: Wade

6. Los Angeles Clippers-Chris Kaman (6), Central Michigan. Kaman was selected here by the Clippers in the '03 draft. He fit a need with the departure of former number one pick Michael Olowokandi. Kaman parlayed a couple solid seasons into a $50 million re-up before injuries put him on the shelf for much of the current season. Original pick: Kaman

7. Chicago Bulls-Kirk Hinrich (7), Kansas. Hinrich was originally selected here by the Bulls in 2003. The Jayhawk fit a need after '02 pick Jay Williams pulled a Rothlesberger before you could call it that. Hinrich has been a key cog in the Bulls' resurgence, helping lead the team to back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since the 1997 and 1998 seasons. Original pick: Hinrich

8. Milwaukee Bucks-T.J. Ford (8), Texas. Ford was selected here by Milwaukee and fit a need following the departure of Sam Cassell to Minnesota and Gary Payton to the Lakers. Ford was having a solid rookie campaign (7.1 ppg, 6.5 apg) before he suffered a neck injury. He was traded to Toronto for Raptors 2006 lottery pick Charlie Villanueva and has piloted Toronto to the top of the Atlantic division and the three-seed in the Eastern Conference. Original pick: Ford

9. New York Knicks-David West (18), Xavier. The 6’'9," 240-pound West had a quiet first two years with the Hornets, but West had a breakout season last year, averaging 17.4 points and 7.4 rebounds while shooting 51 percent from the field. Yes, I'm sure having Chris Paul helped, but West seems like a hard worker who'll do anything to make it in the League. Original pick: Michael Sweetney

10. Washington Wizards
11. Golden State Warriors

Either of these spots could have gone to two players: Boris Diaw (21) and Luke Walton (32). Diaw couldn't get off the bench in Atlanta, yet he has been a major part of a Phoenix team that has re-introduced "Showtime" to the masses, even garnering Most Improved Player honors at the end of the 2005-06 season. Starting at center for Phoenix that season in the playoffs, Diaw averaged 18.7 points, 6.7 boards and 5.2 assists. Walton has blossomed into one of the better all-around young players in the league. His adept passing skills have been put on display in Phil Jackson's triangle offense. In 48 games this season, Walton has more than doubled his career scoring (5.1 to 11.4 ppg), and assists per game averages (2.3 to 4.5). The original picks in these slots, Jarvis Hayes and Michael Pietrus, have shown flashes at time, but haven't played at the level of Diaw and Walton. Original picks: Jarvis Hayes (Wash.) and Michael Pietrus (GSW)

12. Seattle Supersonics-Udonis Haslem, Florida. I considered slotting Darko here, but Seattle has had a pension to take bangers the last few years (Reggie Evans, trading for Chris Wilcox). Haslem went undrafted in 2003, after playing overseas in 2002, but has worked his way into the starting PF spot in South Beach for the foreseeable future. Haslem isn't flashy, but he's a big body who isn't afraid to mix it up in the post. It also helps that he can hit an 18-foot jumper consistently. Original pick: Nick Collison

13. Memphis Grizzlies-Leandro Barbosa (28), Brazil. As of March 27, Barbosa is averaging 17.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 32.4 minutes per game. Barbosa is widely considered at the favorite to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. The speedy Barbosa could start on a number of teams, but he's happy with his role in Phoenix. Ironically, one of his teammates, Marcus Banks, was selected in this spot originally. Banks rarely sniffs the court in Phoenix. Original pick: Marcus Banks

If you notice, Darko’s nowhere to be found on the list. If I went that deep into the draft, Milicic would have fallen somewhere between Bow Wow’s character in “Like Mike” and the kid in my fifth-grade phys. ed. class who would just take a basketball and run in circles around the gym screaming “TOUCHDOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

So, so long, Darko. I hope every team you play against starts a barstool at power forward. You’ll be a hall of famer for sure!

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Saturday, November 14, 2009

Chris Paul now a realistic option for Detroit

The firing of now former New Orleans Hornets coach Byron Scott earlier this week has done a couple of things: let Hornets players and fans know this year is already a wash, made the country's unemployment rate just a liiiiitle higher, and pissed off the team's franchise player.

All-world point guard Chris Paul (23.8 ppg, 9.2 apg, 1.9 spg so far this season) shortly after Scott was given his walking papers told reporters all the blame can't be placed on Scott. The fifth-year guard also said he isn't pleased with how the situation was handled, saying he felt someone would have at least consulted with him and asked how he felt before the decision was made.

Having a disgruntled star on your team is never a good thing. Rarely do situations like the one unfolding in the N.O. end well. That roster, outside of Paul and forward David West, is kind of like the opposite of a pot of gumbo: a bunch of things thrown together that turned out awful.

The man who built that roster, Hornets GM Jeff Bowers, now has to try and make chicken salad out of chicken (you know what) and I think that team is destined to remain a bunch of (you know what).

That means Paul will have to continue to try and be a basketball version of Jason Bourne, but he'll only be able to do that for so long. Paul recently signed a new deal that will pay him about $45 million over the next three seasons (the deal includes a player option for a fourth year). His is a deal any team in the NBA would be willing to take on, even in the state of the league's economy.

But there aren't that many teams that are realistic options for Paul. In any deal, the Hornets would obviously want to receive pieces in return that would keep the team viable. There are some deals out there that would serve as short-term solutions and would work for all parties involved (Paul for Steve Nash straight up comes to mind). But I see very few real options for the Hornets. I say that because other GMs in the league would be calling Bowers and Bowers would be the one holding all the cards.

Paul and Peja Stojakovic to Orlando for Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis
The money matches up just about right, which is important in NBA deals. Both teams would be dealing more than $26 million in salary. Stojakovic and his two years and around $29 million are basically a throw-in in this deal, which amounts to trading all-star point guard for all-star point guard. Nelson was an all-star last season, but missed part of the second half of the season with a shoulder injury. So far this season, in 29 minutes a game, Nelson is averaging 13.5 points and 5.6 assists. Lewis (currently serving a 10-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug) was arguably Orlando's best player in the NBA Finals and is versatile enough to play both forward spots. Lewis is also coming off a season where he put in around 18 points and 6 board a night. In this deal, New Orleans would be getting two players who are relatively young and who can make big contributions. Orlando would be pairing one player who is the best at his position - center Dwight Howard - with another - Paul. Losing the scoring punch Lewis provides would normally be a blow to any team, except Orlando in the off-season added Vince Carter, who's averaging 18 a game this season and has averaged 23.5 over his 12-year career.

Paul and Hilton Armstrong to Detroit for Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince and Jason Maxiell
The return of Isiah Thomas. Paul would be exactly what Detroit needs: someone to ignite the team's fastbreak offense, which is obviously what the team is looking to do going forward. Armstrong, with one year left on a $2.8 million deal, is basically a throw-in to make the contracts match. On the Detroit side, The Rodney Stuckey as a Starting Point Guard Experiment is heading nowhere fast. Sure, he leads the team in assists at 4.1/game, but backup point guard Will Bynum has the same total in 12 less minutes a night. So far, that has added up to the Pistons being last in the league in assists/game at 15.9. All the teams at the top of that category are either really good, or they run an uptempo offense. Right now, Detroit is trying to be the latter. Imagine Paul on the floor running and gunning with Ben Gordon (who has been a revelation so far this season, pouring in 23.8 points a night on .492 percent from the field), Rip Hamilton and Charlie Villanueva. Paul might be the only man in the league would could possibly make Kwame Brown look good, too. As far as Prince, Stuckey and Maxiell go, they could bring some toughness and hard work to a roster that looks lethargic right now.

There are other possible deals for Paul, but they wouldn't benefit the Hornets at all and some of them would put Paul in the same position he's currently in.

So Otis Smith and Joe Dumars, if you're smart, pick up a phone.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Tayshaun Prince won't get Pistons fans what they're asking for

Let people around here tell it, Pistons small forward Tayshaun Prince, if traded, could get you a more than serviceable big man.

That's about as accurate a statement as this: "Oh, no! White Castle doesn't give you bubble guts at all!"

Pistons fans and pundits have been pining for a big man who commands a double team since Bob Lanier left town. They think Prince, who has two years and about $21.5 million left on his contract, can be moved for a big who would allow Detroit to play 5-on-5 on the offensive end instead of the 5-on-4 they've been playing for the better part of a decade.

That talk has gotten stronger since Prince, in his eighth NBA season, all with Detroit, has missed the team's last four games with a ruptured disk in his back, which will keep him sidelined indefinitely. With the drafting of 17 small forwards this past June (OK, it was really three), Prince's injury has given those rookies, most notably Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye, a chance to earn PT.

Jerebko, the 39th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, has taken Prince's place in the starting line-up up to this point. Jerebko has played 24 minutes a night since Tayshaun went down. His numbers have gotten better with each start. He has also become more comfortable out on the court and more aggressive on offense. Daye has averaged about 14 minutes a game in Detroit's last four. He's shown flashes, as well.

I knew something was up when Pistons GM Joe Dumars drafted three guys who play the same position as Prince (12 points, 5 boards a game in three games this season). Those moves would lead anyone to believe Tayshaun was on the block. Drafting that many players who fit the same mold as Prince would also lead some to think there is a market for Prince, but there isn't. Not for what Dumars will be asking.

The most logical - and most talked about - deal for Prince seems to be a 1-for-1 deal that would bring Central Michigan alum and Grand Rapids native Chris Kaman home to Detroit. The move would allow Prince, from Compton, to go home, as well.

The deal makes sense on the surface. The contracts of the two players are close enough where no other players would have to be added in the deal. Both players would get a new start. Kaman (21.9 points, 9.4 rebounds in 2009-10) has one more year and about $12 million on his contract, but he would just be reaching 30 years old at the end of the deal.

I should have phrased that different. The deal makes sense for the Pistons. Not the Clippers, or any other team Detroit would be looking to deal with.

Kaman is the best center the Clippers have ever had. Him being able to do more than move all his limbs saved jobs after the debacle that was Michael Olowokandi. Kaman's numbers haven't been great. His career averages of 10.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks don't jump out at you, but he's one of maybe six TRUE centers in the NBA who's a threat to get a double-double every night while commanding a double team.

The Clippers are third-worst franchise in sports (number one plays at Brush and Montcalm downtown and number two is owned by the Cryptkeeper). It's worth a shot because the talk between Dumars and Clippers GM Mike Dunleavy could go something like this:

Dumars: "Hey, Mike. I got a logjam at small forward. Any way I can get Chris Kaman off your hands?"

Dunleavy: "Chris Kaman? Oh, my starting center. Um...he's pretty good. And one more brainfart of a move could cost me my gig."

Dumars: "Yea. I understand that, but we really, really need a big man."

Dunleavy: "I don't know, Joe. We already have Al Thornton and we're not looking to take on anymore money."

Dumars: "Oh, but his deal is up after next season. He's long, a plus defender, gives you scoring, can guard different positions. I think you know him."

Dunleavy: "Do I!!! I'll take him. I didn't even know Scottie Pippen was still around!!!"

Dunleavy isn't even that dumb. You're going to trade a bonafide big man for a guy who isn't even gonna start for you? That's career suicide, especially for somebody like Dunleavy who already isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

There's not that many true bigmen in the league anymore and unless a team is in severe financial trouble, no GM in his right mind would trade his center for a small forward unless that small forward's name is LeBron.

I'm not saying there's nothing you can get for Tayshaun. Can I interest you in Eddy Curry? He works about as hard at his job as the people who work the drive-thru at the Wendy's by my house. How do you feel about Samuel Dalembert. Six points and 6 boards a game...for $12 million/year.

Detroit's best bet is to find a big through the draft. That may take some time, though, because there aren't many great big men coming out in the next couple years. (Really) early mock drafts have the first big man, Kansas center Cole Aldrich, going number 5 to Golden State.

That same mock has the Pistons, at number 12, taking...Ohio State small forward Evan Turner.

Maybe Detroit could be the first squad to field a squad of guys 6'4" to 6'8."

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Friday, November 6, 2009

The worst of times

Sports have always served as a distraction for fans.

Watching a football game can, for a little while, make people forget what ails them.

Not around here. Not this fall.

The last couple months have been awful for fans of local teams. I've gotten to the point that I'd rather watch a Maury Povich marathon than watch a football game featuring one of our teams.

The University of Michigan has pulled an MSU: start fast and fade.

The Spartans have performed well below expectations (not mine, though) and will be lucky to play in a bowl game.

And the Lions have been, well, the Lions.

Fast forward to hockey and basketball season, and the Pistons, while they'll be entertaining, likely won't make the playoffs. And the area's one consistently really good franchise, the Red Wings, stumbled out of the gate (tied for second in the Central Division with Chicago, one point behind Columbus) and will be in a fight all year to make hockey's second season.

I know it's extremely early in the game, but if the playoffs started this weekend, fans of the two Detroit teams that have seen the most success in recent years would have to find a second squad to root for because their hometown team would be watching postseason action at Bdubs with the rest of us.

Things could get much better, though, come winter.

The Spartan men's hoops team is ranked second in the nation (behind Kansas, a team MSU beat twice last season) in both the Associated Press and Coaches polls. Michigan's hoop squad is ranked 15th in both polls, as the Wolverines will look to build on last season's trip to the Big Dance - their first since 1998.

So there may be some light at the end of this long tunnel, but right now, being a Detroit sports fan is about as fun as watching DVR'd episodes of NOVA on a Saturday night.

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Monday, October 19, 2009

2009-10 NBA: Preseason Power Rankings Part III

You know those reality shows on VH1? They suck you in because they're fun to watch, but there really isn't anything to them.

You can throw these teams into that category for the upcoming NBA season.

The .99 cent menu at Wendy's Division

20. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors this offseason made the craziest man in the NBA - Stephen Jackson - its team captain. Since then, he has expressed that he wants to be traded, along with being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. Shortly after that suspension was handed down, Jackson went on to score 22 points, grab 7 rebounds and play all 48 minutes of a preseason game last week. The Golden State Warriors, everybody!!!

19. Detroit Pistons
Last year, the Pistons could have taken Kansas point guard Mario Chalmers to pair in the backcourt with Rodney Stuckey. They took a guy with a sleep disorder. This offseason, Detroit was still in need of a point guard...the Pistons passed up on Jrue Holliday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague and Eric Maynor to select Gonzaga small forward Austin Daye - a poor man's Tayshaun Prince. Detroit also took two more small forwards in the second round, apparently hoping to become the Golden State of the Midwest. That or the Pistons are planning on dealing Prince at some point this season. Detroit also doesn't have a true center and are hoping Kwame Brown, in his 9th year, will become a solid starting center. The kids of Hot Air Balloon Guy have a better shot at being normal adults than Kwame Brown does of becoming a decent center.

18. Houston Rockets
Aaron Brooks. Brent Barry. Trevor Ariza. Luis Scola. David Andersen. Those names don't represent members of the cast of some TV movie about prison life. Those are the starters for Houston until Tracy McGrady returns in December from a knee injury. And based on his history, McGrady will play 12 games, aggravate a previous injury, and be out for the season. Either that, or he'll be traded since he's in the last year of his contract. Couple that with Yao Ming being out for the season with a foot injury, and the Rockets season will be about as successful as those people who appear on "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" after "Real World/Road Rules Challenge."

17. Washington Wizards
The Wizards traded away the pick that became Ricky Rubio for Mike Miller (career averages of 13.9 points and 5 rebounds/game) and Randy Foye (13 points/game). Rubio played Minnesota and decided not to come to the NBA, and Miller and Foye will add firepower to a group that includes Gilbert Arenas (coming off a knee injury), Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. That group will be allowed to run with new coach Flip Saunders (.597 winning percentage in 13 years) and Washington could sneak into the playoffs if it learns to stop somebody. The Wizards finished 2008-09 24th in the league in points allowed with 103.

The National Coney Island Division

16. Miami Heat

Miami was middle of the pack both offensively (98.3 ppg-18th in the NBA) and defensively (98 ppg-12th) last season. The offensive numbers should improve, especially if Michael Beasley (13.9 points/game in his rookie season) can keep his head in the game. Having Jermaine O'Neal for a full season should keep the Heat's defense solid, too, but having Jermaine O'Neal healthy for more than 55 games in a season is about as likely as "Real Chance of Love" winning an Emmy.

Part IV coming tomorrow

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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

2009-10 NBA: Teams on the decline Part I

With teams looking to free up cap space to make a run at the prized players in the much-hyped 2010 NBA free agent class - LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson are just five names that come to mind - there will surely be some squads looking to dump what they deem "bad" contracts to give them the flexibility to make a hard sell to some of those free agents.

With the league salary cap most likely taking a steep drop next season (some think it may drop form the current $57.7 million to around $50 million), teams will make moves to avoid paying the league Luxury Tax, as well.

A few of those teams have been consistent playoff teams this decade. But do to roster changes, injuries and/or finances, these teams will see a drop in wins this season in a bid to rebuild or shed cap space.

Detroit Pistons
Shortly after the start of the 2008-09 season, Detroit re-signed two-guard Rip Hamilton to a 3-year, $34 million deal that could keep him with the club through 2013. I don't see that happening, especially after Detroit this summer inked Bulls super-sub Ben Gordon to a 5-year, $55 million deal. A number of people believe Detroit will run a three-guard offense with Hamilton and Gordon running alongside third-year guard Rodney Stuckey. There's not enough balls to go around for those three guys.

All three are scoring guards - even though Detroit is making an effort to turn Stuckey into a point. Hamilton can play off the ball. So can Gordon to a lesser extent, but Stuckey will dominate the ball this season as the team looks to make him That Guy. And you don't pay someone coming off the bench $55 million.

Both Hamilton and Gordon for their career average around 15 shots a game and don't provide much else. That, in my opinion, leaves Hamilton as the odd man out as Gordon is just 26, while Hamilton is on the wrong side of 30. Just like Chauncey Billups was last season before he was dealt in what amounted to a salary dump. I don't know what Pistons President and GM Joe Dumars could get for Hamilton, but getting that contract off the books is looking like a good move. It's not a bad contract, which works in the favor of Dumars in trying to move it and in favor of the team who signs Rip, as his deal isn't that cumbersome to take on.

Dealing Rip, as I expect Detroit to do, would leave the Pistons with a core of Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun Prince and Charlie Villanueva (who signed with Gordon this offseason for just under $38 million). That's not a very imposing roster. Detroit sports icon Ben Wallace returned this season, but is waaaaaay past his prime. Starting center Kwame Brown, who has played solid ball so far this preseason, can't catch a cold, let alone a post entry pass. And Dumars drafted three players who play the same position. They may be able to play multiple positions, none of which is center or point guard.

The Pistons will, at times, be very fun to watch. You just won't be watching them past mid-April this season. I didn't think Detroit was a playoff team with Hamilton. Unless the Pistons get someone who can give you 17 points and 10 boards a night, they're definitely not playing in the second season.

Did I mention Kwame Brown is Detroit's starting center?

Part II coming soon

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