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Jason Carmel Davis is a copy editor/page designer with the Oakland Press and Heritage Newspapers. Davis has also written a number of offbeat sports columns for other publications, as he has an unhealthy obsession with all things athletics. It's so unhealthy that he has planned the births of his (future) children around Bowl Season, the Super Bowl, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament and the NBA and NFL drafts.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Losses should keep piling up for Pistons

I was at the last game the Pistons won: a 104-95 victory over the equally hapless Golden State Warriors Dec. 12 at the Palace.

That W gave Detroit a 5-game win streak and put the Pistons at 11-12, good for seventh in the Eastern Conference at the time.

Since then, the team has lost 12 straight games by an average score of 100-87 to put the Pistons at 11-24. Detroit is now tied with Golden State for the fourth-worst record in the League and, if the NBA Draft were held today, the Pistons would most likely have a top-five pick in a fairly deep draft.

As bad as they've been, Detroit is only five games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East (currently held by the 15-18 Milwaukee Bucks. God, the East is awful). It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that the Pistons could make the playoffs and play sacrificial lamb to the Cleveland Cavaliers (again), but what would that accomplish?

A lot of people have talked about Detroit trading either Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince to get a big man. What (decent) big man would either of those guys, who make - combined - about $23 million, be able to get you? All of the solid big men have been locked up long term or will command big dollars on the free agent market, which would mean the possibility of the Pistons having to pay the luxury tax, which they've always been reluctant to do.

Others have suggested offering one or both Hamilton and Prince to a team with a big expiring deal as a way to free up cash this summer and go after a superstar, such as LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. Who's the last "big name" free agent to come to Detroit?

Detroit has never been a place where free agents wanted to come. It is important to find a way to get one or both of those guys off the roster at some point this season, as Detroit already has about $51.4 million in salaries on the books for next season. With the cap set to drop to about $52 million, moves must be made if the Pistons are going to be a player in the free agent game this summer. I'm just not sure any team would want Hamilton or Prince.

Detroit should keep doing what it's doing: being a bad team.

In the NBA, it doesn't pay to be middle of the road. So you get to the playoffs and get bounced in the first round. You've got no shot at a lottery pick and the Draft is usually a crapshoot outside of the lottery. Lady Luck hasn't exactly been on team President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars' side when it comes to the Draft.

The Pistons are awful. I've heard of teams "tanking" the season, but it's not tanking when you already stink. I had Detroit pegged to finish 27-55 before the start of the season. I'm not sure they'll win that many games. Looking at their schedule, the Pistons have two games against Minnesota (8-30) and three against the Detroit Lions of the NBA: the New Jersey Nets (3-33), who would probably struggle with Hickory High at this point. Those are (probably) their only "gimmes" the rest of the way.

Detroit has to build through the Draft. When you're not a free agent destination, stockpiling young talent through the Draft is how you build a winner. At this point, it's safe to say the Pistons will have a top-five pick. And if the Lottery balls bounce their way, the Pistons could luck up and get Kentucky freshman point guard John Wall and pair him with Rodney Stuckey, allowing Stuckey to slide to his natural position: shooting guard.

A backcourt of Wall and Stuckey would be a nice start.

So while the losses keep adding up for Detroit (and they will), fans should think about the long-term effects.

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Saturday, November 14, 2009

Chris Paul now a realistic option for Detroit

The firing of now former New Orleans Hornets coach Byron Scott earlier this week has done a couple of things: let Hornets players and fans know this year is already a wash, made the country's unemployment rate just a liiiiitle higher, and pissed off the team's franchise player.

All-world point guard Chris Paul (23.8 ppg, 9.2 apg, 1.9 spg so far this season) shortly after Scott was given his walking papers told reporters all the blame can't be placed on Scott. The fifth-year guard also said he isn't pleased with how the situation was handled, saying he felt someone would have at least consulted with him and asked how he felt before the decision was made.

Having a disgruntled star on your team is never a good thing. Rarely do situations like the one unfolding in the N.O. end well. That roster, outside of Paul and forward David West, is kind of like the opposite of a pot of gumbo: a bunch of things thrown together that turned out awful.

The man who built that roster, Hornets GM Jeff Bowers, now has to try and make chicken salad out of chicken (you know what) and I think that team is destined to remain a bunch of (you know what).

That means Paul will have to continue to try and be a basketball version of Jason Bourne, but he'll only be able to do that for so long. Paul recently signed a new deal that will pay him about $45 million over the next three seasons (the deal includes a player option for a fourth year). His is a deal any team in the NBA would be willing to take on, even in the state of the league's economy.

But there aren't that many teams that are realistic options for Paul. In any deal, the Hornets would obviously want to receive pieces in return that would keep the team viable. There are some deals out there that would serve as short-term solutions and would work for all parties involved (Paul for Steve Nash straight up comes to mind). But I see very few real options for the Hornets. I say that because other GMs in the league would be calling Bowers and Bowers would be the one holding all the cards.

Paul and Peja Stojakovic to Orlando for Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis
The money matches up just about right, which is important in NBA deals. Both teams would be dealing more than $26 million in salary. Stojakovic and his two years and around $29 million are basically a throw-in in this deal, which amounts to trading all-star point guard for all-star point guard. Nelson was an all-star last season, but missed part of the second half of the season with a shoulder injury. So far this season, in 29 minutes a game, Nelson is averaging 13.5 points and 5.6 assists. Lewis (currently serving a 10-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug) was arguably Orlando's best player in the NBA Finals and is versatile enough to play both forward spots. Lewis is also coming off a season where he put in around 18 points and 6 board a night. In this deal, New Orleans would be getting two players who are relatively young and who can make big contributions. Orlando would be pairing one player who is the best at his position - center Dwight Howard - with another - Paul. Losing the scoring punch Lewis provides would normally be a blow to any team, except Orlando in the off-season added Vince Carter, who's averaging 18 a game this season and has averaged 23.5 over his 12-year career.

Paul and Hilton Armstrong to Detroit for Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince and Jason Maxiell
The return of Isiah Thomas. Paul would be exactly what Detroit needs: someone to ignite the team's fastbreak offense, which is obviously what the team is looking to do going forward. Armstrong, with one year left on a $2.8 million deal, is basically a throw-in to make the contracts match. On the Detroit side, The Rodney Stuckey as a Starting Point Guard Experiment is heading nowhere fast. Sure, he leads the team in assists at 4.1/game, but backup point guard Will Bynum has the same total in 12 less minutes a night. So far, that has added up to the Pistons being last in the league in assists/game at 15.9. All the teams at the top of that category are either really good, or they run an uptempo offense. Right now, Detroit is trying to be the latter. Imagine Paul on the floor running and gunning with Ben Gordon (who has been a revelation so far this season, pouring in 23.8 points a night on .492 percent from the field), Rip Hamilton and Charlie Villanueva. Paul might be the only man in the league would could possibly make Kwame Brown look good, too. As far as Prince, Stuckey and Maxiell go, they could bring some toughness and hard work to a roster that looks lethargic right now.

There are other possible deals for Paul, but they wouldn't benefit the Hornets at all and some of them would put Paul in the same position he's currently in.

So Otis Smith and Joe Dumars, if you're smart, pick up a phone.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Tayshaun Prince won't get Pistons fans what they're asking for

Let people around here tell it, Pistons small forward Tayshaun Prince, if traded, could get you a more than serviceable big man.

That's about as accurate a statement as this: "Oh, no! White Castle doesn't give you bubble guts at all!"

Pistons fans and pundits have been pining for a big man who commands a double team since Bob Lanier left town. They think Prince, who has two years and about $21.5 million left on his contract, can be moved for a big who would allow Detroit to play 5-on-5 on the offensive end instead of the 5-on-4 they've been playing for the better part of a decade.

That talk has gotten stronger since Prince, in his eighth NBA season, all with Detroit, has missed the team's last four games with a ruptured disk in his back, which will keep him sidelined indefinitely. With the drafting of 17 small forwards this past June (OK, it was really three), Prince's injury has given those rookies, most notably Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye, a chance to earn PT.

Jerebko, the 39th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, has taken Prince's place in the starting line-up up to this point. Jerebko has played 24 minutes a night since Tayshaun went down. His numbers have gotten better with each start. He has also become more comfortable out on the court and more aggressive on offense. Daye has averaged about 14 minutes a game in Detroit's last four. He's shown flashes, as well.

I knew something was up when Pistons GM Joe Dumars drafted three guys who play the same position as Prince (12 points, 5 boards a game in three games this season). Those moves would lead anyone to believe Tayshaun was on the block. Drafting that many players who fit the same mold as Prince would also lead some to think there is a market for Prince, but there isn't. Not for what Dumars will be asking.

The most logical - and most talked about - deal for Prince seems to be a 1-for-1 deal that would bring Central Michigan alum and Grand Rapids native Chris Kaman home to Detroit. The move would allow Prince, from Compton, to go home, as well.

The deal makes sense on the surface. The contracts of the two players are close enough where no other players would have to be added in the deal. Both players would get a new start. Kaman (21.9 points, 9.4 rebounds in 2009-10) has one more year and about $12 million on his contract, but he would just be reaching 30 years old at the end of the deal.

I should have phrased that different. The deal makes sense for the Pistons. Not the Clippers, or any other team Detroit would be looking to deal with.

Kaman is the best center the Clippers have ever had. Him being able to do more than move all his limbs saved jobs after the debacle that was Michael Olowokandi. Kaman's numbers haven't been great. His career averages of 10.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks don't jump out at you, but he's one of maybe six TRUE centers in the NBA who's a threat to get a double-double every night while commanding a double team.

The Clippers are third-worst franchise in sports (number one plays at Brush and Montcalm downtown and number two is owned by the Cryptkeeper). It's worth a shot because the talk between Dumars and Clippers GM Mike Dunleavy could go something like this:

Dumars: "Hey, Mike. I got a logjam at small forward. Any way I can get Chris Kaman off your hands?"

Dunleavy: "Chris Kaman? Oh, my starting center. Um...he's pretty good. And one more brainfart of a move could cost me my gig."

Dumars: "Yea. I understand that, but we really, really need a big man."

Dunleavy: "I don't know, Joe. We already have Al Thornton and we're not looking to take on anymore money."

Dumars: "Oh, but his deal is up after next season. He's long, a plus defender, gives you scoring, can guard different positions. I think you know him."

Dunleavy: "Do I!!! I'll take him. I didn't even know Scottie Pippen was still around!!!"

Dunleavy isn't even that dumb. You're going to trade a bonafide big man for a guy who isn't even gonna start for you? That's career suicide, especially for somebody like Dunleavy who already isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

There's not that many true bigmen in the league anymore and unless a team is in severe financial trouble, no GM in his right mind would trade his center for a small forward unless that small forward's name is LeBron.

I'm not saying there's nothing you can get for Tayshaun. Can I interest you in Eddy Curry? He works about as hard at his job as the people who work the drive-thru at the Wendy's by my house. How do you feel about Samuel Dalembert. Six points and 6 boards a game...for $12 million/year.

Detroit's best bet is to find a big through the draft. That may take some time, though, because there aren't many great big men coming out in the next couple years. (Really) early mock drafts have the first big man, Kansas center Cole Aldrich, going number 5 to Golden State.

That same mock has the Pistons, at number 12, taking...Ohio State small forward Evan Turner.

Maybe Detroit could be the first squad to field a squad of guys 6'4" to 6'8."

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Monday, October 19, 2009

2009-10 NBA: Preseason Power Rankings Part III

You know those reality shows on VH1? They suck you in because they're fun to watch, but there really isn't anything to them.

You can throw these teams into that category for the upcoming NBA season.

The .99 cent menu at Wendy's Division

20. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors this offseason made the craziest man in the NBA - Stephen Jackson - its team captain. Since then, he has expressed that he wants to be traded, along with being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. Shortly after that suspension was handed down, Jackson went on to score 22 points, grab 7 rebounds and play all 48 minutes of a preseason game last week. The Golden State Warriors, everybody!!!

19. Detroit Pistons
Last year, the Pistons could have taken Kansas point guard Mario Chalmers to pair in the backcourt with Rodney Stuckey. They took a guy with a sleep disorder. This offseason, Detroit was still in need of a point guard...the Pistons passed up on Jrue Holliday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague and Eric Maynor to select Gonzaga small forward Austin Daye - a poor man's Tayshaun Prince. Detroit also took two more small forwards in the second round, apparently hoping to become the Golden State of the Midwest. That or the Pistons are planning on dealing Prince at some point this season. Detroit also doesn't have a true center and are hoping Kwame Brown, in his 9th year, will become a solid starting center. The kids of Hot Air Balloon Guy have a better shot at being normal adults than Kwame Brown does of becoming a decent center.

18. Houston Rockets
Aaron Brooks. Brent Barry. Trevor Ariza. Luis Scola. David Andersen. Those names don't represent members of the cast of some TV movie about prison life. Those are the starters for Houston until Tracy McGrady returns in December from a knee injury. And based on his history, McGrady will play 12 games, aggravate a previous injury, and be out for the season. Either that, or he'll be traded since he's in the last year of his contract. Couple that with Yao Ming being out for the season with a foot injury, and the Rockets season will be about as successful as those people who appear on "Real World/Road Rules Challenge" after "Real World/Road Rules Challenge."

17. Washington Wizards
The Wizards traded away the pick that became Ricky Rubio for Mike Miller (career averages of 13.9 points and 5 rebounds/game) and Randy Foye (13 points/game). Rubio played Minnesota and decided not to come to the NBA, and Miller and Foye will add firepower to a group that includes Gilbert Arenas (coming off a knee injury), Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. That group will be allowed to run with new coach Flip Saunders (.597 winning percentage in 13 years) and Washington could sneak into the playoffs if it learns to stop somebody. The Wizards finished 2008-09 24th in the league in points allowed with 103.

The National Coney Island Division

16. Miami Heat

Miami was middle of the pack both offensively (98.3 ppg-18th in the NBA) and defensively (98 ppg-12th) last season. The offensive numbers should improve, especially if Michael Beasley (13.9 points/game in his rookie season) can keep his head in the game. Having Jermaine O'Neal for a full season should keep the Heat's defense solid, too, but having Jermaine O'Neal healthy for more than 55 games in a season is about as likely as "Real Chance of Love" winning an Emmy.

Part IV coming tomorrow

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